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Sunday, January 18, 2009

BSE SENSEX ANALASYS


After a panic bottom on 27th Oct’08, Sensex moved-up sharply within 7 trading sessions. That was wave-A.

Wave-A peaked-out at the beginning of Nov’08 & market entered into a sideways, trading range pattern, called as wave-B.

This wave-B is either completed in this week or going to complete in first half of next week. Thus wave-C is already started or going to start in second half of next week. Wave-C is invariably upward, fast & all inclusive.

13-days Stochastic is also on the verge of a bottom-out. Thus Sensex is expected to see higher-highs on a closing basis, from next week.200 days simple moving average (DSMA), is passing through 13,000. As Sensex moves upward, it will get lowered.

Bears failed to bring down market substantially. GM issue will not crop-up again until Mar’09 while Citi’s vertical divide, seems more orderly than disruptive. 8-year long ‘unregulated’ Republican tenure, is going to finish early next week & more orderly, disciplined, constructive Democrats are coming back in US.

There are no negative developments, lurking somewhere at least up to Mar’09, except an act-of-god.Global equity markets are already bottomed-out & ready for a swift up move.

Sensex is expected to test its 200 DSMA up to Mid-Mar’09. At the beginning of 2009, large section of market experts, expressed possibility of a range-bound market in H1 of 2009 & then a recovery in H2 of 2009. But market is a place of surprises.