Budget 2009-10 : What to expect

Budget 2009-10 : What to expect?
UPA Government won the elections against the overall opinion of a hung parliament and markets gave a big thumbs up to this. But after discounting the election results on 18May09, indices haven't moved much further as Sensex is up by just 4.4% from that day's closing. Will things be different as we go into the big event called Union Budget on Monday 06July09?
Expectations - Sunny Side First:-
Insurance Bill - FDI in Insurance to be taken to 49% from current 26%. This proposal, if passed, can benefit stocks like EXIDE, DABUR, HDFC, ICICI BANK, RELCAP, SBI, ADITYA BIRLA NUVO as they are having exposure to Life Insurance JVs.
Education and Healthcare spending should receive a boost. Spending on these sectors remains very bad – the Indian Government spent just 4% of GDP on these areas as compared to 12% of GDP by the US Government.
Priority Sector and Infrastructure spending will also rise and more PPP (Public Private Partnership) initiatives can come to the fore. Infrastructure finance companies such as IDFC, PFC, REC can get some facilities to raise cheaper funds, e.g. through tax-free bonds.
If Budget re-introduces Section 10 (23G) which allows income from investment in infrastructure, both via equity and debt, to be exempted from tax would benefit IDFC, IDBI & IFCI.
Extension of Section 80IA beyond 2010, if implemented, to benefit infrastructure developers like IVRCL, NAGARCONST, L&T’s Infrastructure SPV, and GMR INFRA.
Introduction of Section 80M which provides for deduction in dividends received from subsidiaries for computation of dividend distribution tax - likely beneficiaries being companies which form SPVs like LT, GMR INFRA, IVRCL, HCC, NCC
Economic Survey suggested removal of price controls on all drugs except on essential drugs - LUPIN, DR REDDY, RANBAXY, GLENMARK, BIOCON, CIPLA, GLAXO to benefit immensely
Exemption under Section 80 for promoting R&D in Pharmaceuticals will benefit almost every Pharmaceutical company.
Deregulation of Oil Prices - Oil marketing companies (mostly PSU) to benefit: HPCL,BPCL, IOC, MRPL, CHENNAI PETRO. Other beneficiaries include ONGC and GAIL as their subsidy burden will go down.
Allowing Retail FDI up to 100% - key beneficiaries include companies that have exposure to retail trade like RELIANCE, BHARTI (with Walmart), PANTALOON
Fiscal Stimulus to export sectors - Indian exports have dropped for 8 consecutive months on the back of global recession and Imports also have fallen largely on account of reduction in Oil prices. Some sectors like Textiles have sufferred the most and likely to get some relief. Other major exporters are Auto Ancillary, Gems & Jewellery and Software Exports. Extension of STPI (Software Technology Parks of India) scheme will benefit smaller IT stocks.
Will the corporate tax rate be cut - It is unlikely to happen given large fiscal deficit but if it happens, the companies that pay large taxes can benefit, such as SBI, ONGC, PNB, BOI, BOB, HDFC, NABARD, ICICIBANK and other bigger PSUs like NTPC, BHEL
Disinvestment - There must have been a lot of betting on this one and investors are looking very optimistically this time around with Left not present in the current UPA government. Eco Survey has suggested Rs 25000 Cr target each year for divestment. Given the large funding requirements for Infrastructure and other expenditure, Government may come out with a disinvestment target and likely candidates for that. NHPC, OIL, COAL INDIA, BSNL, Clarity on 3G auctions is also expected.
Some key structural reforms can be discussed in this Budget, such as GST (Goods and Services Tax). A lot of stress has been laid on this front but we will know if it will really be implemented by April 2010, the Budget is likely to provide concrete details in this respect.
Incentives for setting up urea capacities and paying subsidies in full cash instead of bonds + cash - TATACHEM, CHAMBAL, NAGARFERT, RCF to benefit
Maintaining Zero Customs Duty on Newsprints or setting up of import duty to benefit TNPL, JAGRAN, HT MEDIA, DCHL
Capital infusion into PSU banks by Government - likely beneficiaries PNB, IDBI
Infrastructure status to Healthcare Industry will help APOLLO HOSP, FORTIS HEALTH, MAX HEALTH, WOCKHARDT HOSPITALS, they will be able to increase investment but in addition to that easy funds availability will also be possible.
Infrastructure status to hotels - positive for all hotels (INDIAN HOTELS, EIH, HOTEL LEELA, ROYAL ORCHID, KAMAT HOTELS)
Abolition of FBT - positive for many Tech companies, especially large to medium like INFOSYS, MPHASIS, TCS, WIPRO, TECHM, KPIT, PATNI
FDI in Aviation up to 49% - beneficial for aviation companies in reducing debt (KINGFISHER, SPICEJET)
Steel industry demanding safeguard duty which if implemented fully can benefit HRC makers like SAIL, TATASTEEL, JINDAL STEEL, JSWSTEEL
Increase in income tax exemption for interest payments on home loans to Rs 2.5lakh/year - positive for realty companies focusing on residential projects (UNITECH, PARSVNATH, DLF, OMAXE)
Reduction in excise duty on Textile Machines - to benefit LMW and textile sector as a whole.
JAIN IRRIGATION should benefit from a government focus on farm productivity, rural development, water infrastructure development and a potential increase in outlays for a micro Irrigation subsidy
Bankruptcy Law:- Eco Survey suggested introduction of a separate Bankruptcy Law or a new section in Companies Law to facilitate exit of old/failed management easily. Also strengthening existing Companies Act to avoid re-occurrence of events like SATYAM.
Reduction in STT and details on complete abolition - overall boost for stocks

SCRIPT MOVING OUT FROM FUTURES

SCRIPT MOVING OUT FROM FUTURES (1) 3i info (2) alok (3) amtek auto (4) Aptech (5) arvind balaji tele (7) ballarpur ind (8) bata (9) birla corp (10) bombay dye (11) Central bank (12) dcb (13) edelwises (14) escorts (15) everon (16) gdl (17) gitanjali (18) gnfc (19) gujalk (20) havells (21) hcl info (22) hoec (23) irb (24) jet air (25) jsl (26) kesoram (27) ksk (28) karnataka bank (29) lmw (30) maha life (31) mahaseamless (32) mindtree (33) monnet ispat (34) mrf (35) nb venture (36) ndtv (37) net18 (38) niit (39) penisula land (40) rajesh export (41) riil (42) skumar (43) srei (44) srf (45) star (46) thermax (47)torrent power (48) tvs motor (49) utv (50) wockpharma

TODAY 16 JUNE OUR AGRESIVE TRADER PROFIT 4,68,936 WITH INVESTMENT 20 LACS

TODAY OUR AGRESIVE TRADER PROFIT FROM ONLY 1 LOT TOTAL PROFIT 468936
RECOMONDATIONS DETAILS
REL CAP 32016
TECHMAH 104000
BANKNIFTY 20000
EDELWISE 25000
EVERON 12800
ESTIMATED PROIT 10 LACS WITH INVESTMENT 20 LACS ONLY TODAY PROFIT 4,68,936

REGARDS
PNMM
09293182224
09908326842

Monday mkts

MONDAY BSE SENSEX OPEN WITH GAP UP MIN 300-400 POINTS & IT MAY BE UPPER CIRCUTE POSSIBLE ....DUE TO GUD MAJORITY OF UPA.....

PNMM

09293182224, 09908326842

http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/PNMMADVISORY15

AS PER ELLITTE WAVE ANALASYS FOR NIFTY

IF NIFTY SPOT CLOSES ABOVE 3,444 FOR 46 CONSECUTIVE DAYS,TGT 7,100,8,200 IN3 YEARS, SPOTCLOSES BELOW 3,270 FOR 46 CONSECU DAYS TGT 2300,1832 as per advance Ellitte wave Theory

SHORT TERM DELIVERY CALLS 02 may 2009

AGRESIVE TRADER MAY MONTH ESTIMATED PROFIT MINIMUM 10 LACS(INVEST 20 LACS ABOVE ,SPECIAL HNI SERVICE ESTIMATED PROFIT 3.5LACS (INVESTMENT OF 9 LACS ABOVE
SHORT TERM DELIVERY CALLS
PLS KEEP EYE ON
EVERON @158
GSKCOSUMER @820(WE HAD 790) long term tgt 1200, 1500
J&K BANK @315
ABG SHIP @80
CEAT,JK TYRE (WE HAD CEAT @51,JK TYRE @52
PLS EXIT WOCKHARD
PNMM
09293182224

BUY CIPLA @239 TGT Rs 285-295/305

CIPLA has broken out of its big consolidation BUY @ 239 FOR TARGET Rs 285-295/305 STOP LOSS Rs 220 POSITIONAL

check our post of OCT 27TH

V good chances of sensex closing above 200dma (11180) after a very very long time, sensex has a gap down @ 11420 created on 14th Oct, 2008 which can be covered in the coming week ou r tgt sensex near term 12000,12500

Dated: October 27, 2008
SENSEX (8509)
Sensex appears to be coming to an end of its (abc) correction as per fibonacci retracements. It has strong support on the downside at 7600 and 7200. While, Any move from today's low above 9850-9900 will confirm that it has bottomed out today.
Since early September 2008, Sensex has 4 pending gaps to be filled.
These times are best for investers to buy and even for traders with a medium term target as the risk reward ratios are now all in favour of BUYS. Sensex with all probability should cover the above marked 4 gaps within the next 4-5 months.
Wishing you a very Happy Diwali and a Prosperous trading cum investment year.

MONDAY FREE TRAIL 13TH APRIL

FREE TRAIL
BUY TATAELXSI 1000 qty @91(WE AREHAVING @86 ON WEDNESDAY)TGT 100,109(OUR FEES 28000),U CAN BUY TATAELXSI 1000 AND GET GUD PROFITS THEN U WILL SUBSCRIBE ..NO MORE FREE RECOMONDATIONS..
REGARDS
PNMM
09293182224

PNMM ALWAYS IN ADVANCE CHECK DE

CHECK OUR MARCH 25TH MESAGE OUR MKT ENTERED IN BULLISH ZONE as per Ellitt wave AFTER OUR ALERT NIFTY UPBY 700 POINTS , TODAY ALL ENGLISH CHANNELS ARE SPREADED NEWS (AFTER 15 DAYS)OUR MKTS ARE ENTERED IN BULLISH ZONE ..JUST SEE PNMM ALWAYS IN ADVANCE ..WE HAD 20 YEARS EXPERIENCE IN STOCK MKTS..OUR CALLS ALWAYS ROCKING
http://pnmmadvisory.blogspot.com/2009/03/india-starts-next-rally-in-5-wave-cycle.html
.REGARDS
PNMM
09293182224

ALL TIME HIGH SUCCESS FROM PNMM

LAST 7 DAYS OUR TOTAL RECOMONDATIONS GIVEN 50FAILURE ONLY 1 TATASTEEL SL OF Rs7.ALL TIME HIGHSUCCES ..only PNMM CALLS ROCKING ALWAYS
THIS MONTH SOFAR OUR 7 CALLS PROFIT BETWEEN 50000-1.5 LACS PER ONLY 1 LOT IN OUR AGRESIVE TRADER,SPECIAL HNI SERVICE for fees details call us on 09293182224,

CHECK DE OUR CALL BHARAT BIJLEE YESTERDAY 565 REC @410,ADANI REC @247 YESTERDAY 340 TGT REVISED 420


Regards
PNMM
09293182224

MONDAY 29 MARCH OUR RECOMONDATIONS

BUY BHARAT BIJLEE @410 TGT 450/500
ADANI ABOVE 247,
PRAJ @57 TGT 62/68
BUY KALPATARU @325 tgt 340/365
BUY APTECH @82 TGT 90,99
(WE HAD THESE CALS ON FRIDAY TO MY PAID CLIENTS
PNMM 09293182224 , 09908326842,
http://pnmmadvisory.blogspot.com/ ,
http://pnmm9.blogspot.com/
http://www.smsgupshup.com/search?query=PNMM