United States presidential election of 2009-

United States presidential election of 2009- a view by A.K.PrabhakarThe United States presidential election of 2008, scheduled for TuesdayNovember 4, 2008 will be the 56th consecutive quadrennial UnitedStates presidential election and will select the President of theUnited States and Vice President of the United States. The president-elect and vice president-elect are scheduled to be inaugurated onJanuary 20, 2009.Bristol palin, 17, (center) held her brother as her mother, SarahPalin, stood with Sen. McCain at an Ohio campaign stop Friday(29/08/2008).On August 28 McCain offered Senator Sarah Palin the vice presidentialspot just moments after their meeting concluded.Facts: U.S hasn’t had a women president or Vice-president while mostof the world countries have had women at high post, so called 2ndbiggest demo-crac(z)y has failed, while fundamentalist Iran had 2woman Vice-president 1997-2005 Vice-President Prof. Dr. MasoumekEbtekar, Iran and Currently from 2005- Vice-President Fatemeh Javadi,Iran. Twist and Turn: Barack Obama has been in lead as per survey andif he wins he will be the first non-white to do so and Democrats had awoman or Non-white choice but republics had to do catch up game whichcan be filled in by Sarah Palin in my view and the one sided contesthas changed into a tough touch and go. What matters most are peoplewho vote on 4November and to whom they vote.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008U.S election data• George Herbert Walker Bush (born June 12, 1924) served as the forty-first President of the United States from 1989 to 1993
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_H._W._Bush• William Jefferson "Bill" Clinton served as the forty-secondPresident of the United States from 1993 to 2001 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Clinton• George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is the forty-third andcurrent President of the United from 2001 to 2009http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._BushAs per U.S laws a person can’t be a president for more than 2term eachterm is 4years.Why do we need to know about U.S election 2009?Traditionally Indian market and Global market has reacted to U.Selection I have presented a graph below where 1992 and 2000 have seenmajor bear phase and even in 1996 we did see major correction. And nowin run-up election in 2009 we are seeing a correction which hasextended from Jan2008 till now and may extend till Jan-Feb2009.When do you see recovery coming?Past record of 8year rally, high in 1992 saw a low made in 1993 andHigh in 2000 saw a low made in 2001 and most important is the all timehigh was crossed only in 1994 after 1992 high and 2004 after 2000high. So we have made a high in 2008 and low can be possible in 2009and new high possibility arises in 2010 or after that.What would be the impact to Global market?U.S policy undergoes major changes in an 8year cycle and that haveimpacted global economies in major way. While father and son Bushattacked Gulf (Iraq) in there respective term which saw high Crude oilprice, Clinton term saw a surplus of $599 and Crude prices were incontrol.What impact it would give to Indian market?
After almost a gap of 17-18years U.S payroll data and employment datais worst and there is a feeling that U.S outsourcing to India andother Asian countries has to be controlled and visa rules made strict,this has been election issue from 1997, 2001 and 2005 and this timethe impact has been worst in 20years. This can impact Tech, BPO, KPOand other outsourcing industries, many are skeptical real impact willbe known latter.Which sector would benefit?Alternate energy would be one major sector to watch, and Carbon credit(Non-polluting) Industries can benefit as new Govt may favor reductionin green house gas emission.Senator Barack Obama http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_ObamaObama stated that if elected he would enact budget cuts in the rangeof tens of billions of dollars, stop investing in "unproven" missiledefense systems, not "weaponize" space, "slow development of futurecombat systems," and work towards eliminating all nuclear weapons.Obama favors ending development of new nuclear weapons, reducing thecurrent U.S. nuclear stockpile, enacting a global ban on production offissile material, and seeking negotiations with Russia in order totake ICBMs off high alert stat.Highlight: Many fear that Indian Nuclear deal may face problem if itdoesn’t pass through before President Bush term ends.Senator John McCain http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_McCainIf inaugurated in 2009 at age 72 years and 144 days, he would be theoldest U.S. president upon ascension to the presidency, and the second-oldest president to be inaugurated.
On the economy, McCain says he would make the Bush tax cuts permanentinstead of letting them expire, he would eliminate the AlternativeMinimum Tax so as to assist the middle-class, he would double thepersonal exemption for dependents, reduce the corporate tax rate, andoffer a new research and development tax credit. At the same time, hepledges to eliminate pork-barrel spending, freeze nondefensediscretionary spending for a year or more, and reduce Medicare growth.McCain is also opposed to high salaries and lucrative severance dealsof corporate CEOs. Another proposal of the Arizona senator is to build45 new nuclear reactors by 2030, in order to fight climate change andestablish U.S. energy independence.Conclude: U.S election has always had its impact on Global markets andIndian markets and this time possibility of Indian election following(Before May2009) and SEBI policy silent about PN-Notes which expiresin March2009 makes investors to go slow. Sector rotation, many getstruck up as new policy initiative changes the leadership in growthsector. As a long term investor above 3-5years I would be bullish onIndian markets and this would be the market which would lead theGlobal recovery, but problem is many fail to understand long-term.Market to correct from peak of 20,000 levels started distribution fromNovember 2007 till January 2008 3months and few days of false rallyone should not get carried awayQuote: When we were young kids growing up in America, we were told toeat our vegetables at dinner and not leave them. Mothers said, thinkof the starving children in India and finish the dinner.”And now I tell my children: 'Finish your homework. Think of thechildren in India who would make you starve, if you don't?' THE WORLDIS FLAT- BY THOMAS FRIEDMANRecap: I was going through the entire news summary I have sent from
Nov2007 to Jan2008. November2007 in Bangalore seminar a marketcorrection from 20,500 to 14,000 levels was predicted and announcedand time period was given as next 3months. I went through all themails I sent many interesting facts, loads of warning of coming crashwe have talked about 8year cycle and we were first, 7/1/2008 we talkedabout how U.S market correction will impact Indian market- Just asample below.Market summary for January 3rd 2008-A.K.Prabhakar When caution is given traders and short term investor short sell themarkets and they get trapped, caution is given seeing excesses inmarket, euphoria, rampant manipulation which is part of euphoric bullmarkets. Predicting the top & bottom of any market is very difficult.we have almost 1000 stocks hitting upper circuit on average which isnever good for healthy markets, Many want tips and news and notquality research report and no one is ready do basic homework. Many rumors are spread on Reliance energy IPO that markets areheld till that and Reliance pack will move heavily from today, theseare news and rumors spread on vested interest. Fundamental is the onewhich is time tested and has proved over the years to be beneficial.Insiders and manipulators have never crossed one cycle of markets (4to 8 years), so please understand the dynamics of markets and takeyour risk.
Prepared by A.K.Prabhakar